Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Twisted Shorts

As I get ready to close my eyes and sleep, I am left wondering what the heck happened today. The S&P was once again slammed down from the highs only to find buyers around the 825 level in the futures (the NDX found support around 1120). In looking at the markets tonight, all I see is Red as the buy programs that drove the thin market higher into the close are now being unwound. Overall I ask, is it really worth it to trade this market? On the rally today, the buying was so condensed that my portfolio remained lower for the most part. A few names did well but the performance of the whole remains less than satisfactory.

Going into the rest of the week, I am left wondering if I should just turn the computer off. however, I don't believe that will be the tact I take ultimately. I am looking for a breakdown in the dollar and remember a few years ago around thanksgiving the dollar gave in to the bears and dropped. the move today from the lows, a negative momentum divergence, could come into play more aggressively now if the Euro and GBP find some footing. Those two markets remain oversold so I am trading them from the long side - with little luck of late! Anyhow, enough rambling. Here are a few other twisted notes for your reading enjoyment.
  • Tomorrow the 850 level in the S&P could become major support - there was some big selling there near the close tonight that got ripped into the close. If it holds, it could cause the shorts to run for cover again.
  • I am impressed with the action in gold of late. I still believe that crude holds the 51/54 area which means that commodities should start to spurt up sooner than later.
  • What the heck is wrong with the CME? I really like their company and earnings picture but the rumors of the government creating a central clearinghouse seems foolish to me. I trade in and out of this name as my stop was tripped.
  • Copper is holding in around the $1.66 level which is impressive given the fact that the gap still argues for $1.40. If this contract bounces from around here, we could see economic output pick up - essentially what I argued yesterday in my crude piece.
  • While I am impressed with copper, I am not impressed with the action in stocks overall. Breadth has stunk and even when HPQ and HD report decent numbers, the sellers come out and hammer away.
  • On the realmoney silver board, I am finding traders to be very cautious. Perhpas this rally does have legs? Even Cramer, Mr Bull himself, is arguing against this market.
That's about it. Have a good night.

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