Thursday, November 20, 2008

Twisted Shorts: Looking for a Bottom

So the selling continued for another day and the lows from 2002 were sadly obliterated, if you were long - happily if you were short. The system is broken at the moment as the long bond races towards zero and the corporate bond market does the same, only that its prices are going to zero! For the most part, my equity portfolio has now going fully invested as I have built up a decent position in the financials. On the futures and currency side, I am shut down for the rest of the month as historically the last 10 days of November have not been my best - thus I do not trade. Sometimes if I have a position, entering this time frame, I will hold it into this window but I will not add or reverse such.

And in this market, why the heck would I want to reverse a short or anything into the downward trend? Maybe because I am an idiot? Today I was out buying the financials UYG and XLF along with some other positions. I was stopped out on a few of my oil names as the market continues to pummel crude lower - by the way, this is getting somewhat absurd with crude and much to easy to short the commodity. Another day, another selloff and a destruction of my thesis on black gold to hold the 51/54 area. Now what? Well, I hate to say this but the armageddon scenario is now on the table! $34 next! This very well could drag stocks through these lows today and down into the 6s on the S&P. Speaking of 6s, do you think the devil is behind all of this wonderful market action? Just kidding but here are a few other thoughts on the day.
  • Another day, another 3000 decliners on the NYSE. I cannot get over how many stocks are going down in a wholesale liquidation. That would be about 95% of all stocks. Oh, did I mention that volumes today had the bears controlling 98% of the volumes of the NYSE and the ND? Bottom line; I think we are close to a bottom. we'll see what transpires in tomorrow's session
  • Even as stocks got tattooed into the close, the Euro and GBP remained remarkably stable. This could be a leading indicator that stocks are finding support and not all assets are falling.
  • IN regards to the Yellow metal, I continue to be a believer in the Meta after it once gain held the 766 level

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